2008 Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy

Here's the 2008 fantasy baseball draft strategy for a 5x5 roto league. The categories are R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, and WHIP. League configurations are C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, Util, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P, and 5 bench spots.

Rounds 1-5: I would aim for getting one premium RP (one of the top 4 -- Jonathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan, J J Putz, and Francisco Rodriguez), someone with excellent SB (a Jose Reyes or a Hanley Ramirez, or even someone like Eric Byrnes), as well as 3 power hitters, not necessarily in that order.

Rounds 6-10: Here's where I start load up on SP. I'd aim for 3 SP here, and then 2 power hitters.

Rounds 11-15: Here's where you start taking chances. Here I'll go with someone who had a good 2006, and was a bust (injury or otherwise) in 2007. Players like Francisco Liriano, Troy Glaus or Chris Carpenter (remember him?) would be perfect here.

Rounds 16-21: You are rounding out your position players. At this stage, you are reaching for potential. Any rookie who has had a good last month, or even a good last couple of weeks, of 2007 is worth considering here. Power is also still available here (for example, Rick Ankiel), so is premium speed (Jerry Owens, 32 SB in 356 AB in 2007). You'll want to grab a second RP who can provide some saves (players like Todd Jones and Brian Wilson can still be had here). Once all the closers are gone, you can start to aim for an RP who is not a closer now but who can become a closer should something happen to the incumbent closer, someone like a Joel Zumaya, or one of the San Diego middle relievers (doesn't it seem like every year SD comes up with a couple of RP's with great ERA, WHIP, and K numbers?) would be a wise choice here.

2008 Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings - 3B

Here's the 2008 fantasy baseball 3B rankings:

Rank	Player
1	Alex Rodriguez
2	David Wright
3	Miguel Cabrera
4	Ryan Braun
5	Chipper Jones
6	Aramis Ramirez
7	Troy Glaus
8	Mike Lowell
9	Chone Figgins
10	Garrett Atkins
11	Akinori Iwamura
12	Josh Fields
13	Ryan Zimmerman
14	Adrian Beltre
15	Alex Gordon
16	Casey Blake
17	Kevin Youklis
18	Eric Chavez
19	Hank Blalock
20	Ryan Freel

This year's 3B crop is very strong. The 1-4 positions are all projected first-round fantasy picks, with A Rod the #1 pick in most leagues. I don't think, though, that A Rod will reproduce what he did last year -- after all, it was like a contract year for him. Now that he has the big contract, will he hit close to 54 HR and 156 RBI like he did last year? I don't believe so -- I believe his numbers will be closer to 40 HR and 120 RBI. Still excellent numbers and worthy of a high-first round selection. But if draft him expecting to see 50+ HR and 140+ RBI, you are likely to be disappointed.

I believe Troy Glaus will be the surprise in this year's 3B crop. The former college SS has a new team, and is hitting behind Albert Pujols (remember how Jeff Kent's numbers were helped when he hit behind Barry Bonds?) If he stays healthy, don't be surprised if he produces 35 HR and 120 RBI.

2008 Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings - 2B

Here's the 2008 fantasy baseball ranking for 2nd basemen:

Rank	Player
1	Chase Utley
2	Brian Roberts
3	Dan Uggla
4	Brandon Phillips
5	B J Upton
6	Robinson Cano
7	Chone Figgins
8	Ian Kinsler
9	Jeff Kent
10	Placido Polanco
11	Ty Wigginton
12	Mark Ellis
13	Aaron Hill
14	Freddy Sanchez
15	Kelly Johnson
16	Dustin Pedroia
17	Rickie Weeks
18	Kazuo Matsui
19	Ryan Theriot

Second base is arguably the weakest position in fantasy baseball this year. Chase Utley is very good and is definitely worthy of a first-round selection, but none of the other players, in my opinion, should be drafted in the first 3 rounds. In quite a few drafts, though, you'll see players such as Brandon Phillips and Brian Roberts go in possibly rounds 2 or 3. This is more indicative of the lack of depth in 2B than their true value. In fact, I do not advice drafting any 2B other than Utley in the first 4 rounds. You will get much better value going for a power hitter, a very good SP, or a premium RP.

A possible late-round steal is Placido Polanco. He is likely to hit 2nd in a powerful Detroit lineup, so he will rack up R, and he has always hit for a good average (.338 in 2005, .295 in 2006, and .341 in 2007). He won't give you any power numbers (only 9 HR and 67 RBI), but if you can land him in late rounds to fill one of your last roster spots, he can prove to be valuable contributor in R and AVG.

2008 Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings - 1B

Here's the 2008 fantasy baseball first baseman rankings:

Rank	Player
1	Albert Pujols
2	Ryan Howard
3	David Ortiz
4	Prince Fielder
5	Lance Berkman
6	Mark Teixeira
7	Justin Morneau
8	Derrek Lee
9	Victor Martinez
10	Carlos Pena
11	Travis Hafner
12	Adrian Gonzalez
13	James Loney
14	Garrett Atkins
15	Nick Swisher
16	Casey Blake
17	Carlos Guillen
18	Paul Konerko
19	Carlos Delgado
20	Richie Sexon

At the top there are no surprises. Albert Pujols continues to be my #1 first baseman, followed by Ryan Howard and then David Ortiz (who is 1B-eligible this season). Prince Fielder was the biggest jump from last year to this year. Last year he was probably not on anyone's top 20 list, and after a 50 HR year, this year he is the #4-ranked 1B.

James Loney is the sleeper in this group. In 344 at bats in 2007, Loney had 15 HR, and 67 RBI. Since Loney will play full-time this year, it's not unreasonable to see him get 550 at bats, and that would translate into 24 HR and 107 RBI, pretty good numbers indeed.

Paul Konerko and Carlos Delgado are both on the decline. Not long ago, these two players were both 30 HR, 100 RBI, and .300 hitters. Not anymore. Both show precipitous decline in numbers last year. Expect them to become fantasy irrelevance this year.

2008 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

Here are 3 fantasy baseball sleepers for the 2008 Fantasy Baseball season:

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C): If he has 500 at bats this season with Texas, his numbers are projected to be 136 Hits, 84 Runs, 21 HR, and 63 RBI (based on his 167 at-bats with Texas last year). This would put him in the Top 5 for catchers. Even more, this is assuming that he doesn't improve from last year. If he does, he will be one of the top 3 fantasy catchers by year end.

Rafael Soriano (RP): His WHIP and BAA were a miniscule 0.86 and .181, respectively, in 2007. Now that he has the full-time closer job, he has the potential to be a top 5 closer (in the league of Putz, K Rod, Papelbon, and Nathan) by the end of the year.

Josh Fields (3B/OF): Fields had 23 HR, 67 RBI, and 54 Runs in 373 at bats in 2007. That projects to 31 HR, 90 RBI, and 72 Runs over 500 at bats. This assumes that he does not improve upon last year. The projected numbers make him worth a late-round consideration.

Looking forward to the Fantasy Baseball 2008 Season

Last season my fantasy baseball teams were pretty bad by my standards. This year I have a chip on my shoulder, and I will be updating my progress and thoughts as the season goes along. Even though it's only January now, spring training is not that far off, and the draft will be coming up soon as well.